Past and Future of Backcasting
Philip Vergragt, J. Quist
This paper deals with the past, present, and future of backcasting. After reviewing the origin of and developments in backcasting since the 1970s, it concludes that several varieties can be distinguished and that a shift has been made to broad stakeholder participation and towards a focus on realizing follow-up and implementation. The paper then proposes a methodological framework for participatory backcasting.
Originally published in Futures 38, no. 9 (November 2006): 1027-1045, available at http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328706000541.