Quantitative Simulations

Scenario narratives describe qualitative features of a scenario such as prevailing values and institutions. Quantitative representations provide complementary insight by depicting population, economic, resource, and environmental patterns. Tellus has quantified four global scenarios in great detail: Market Forces, Policy Reform, Fortress World, and Great Transitions.

Click graphics below to explore the results:

Scenario overview


highlights
Highlights

Interactive tool

Highlights
Futures in Motion

Data tables

Detailed Results
Detailed Results

The analysis was conducted using Tellus Institute’s PoleStar System. PoleStar was created for illuminating long-range, integrated, and highly uncertain scenarios. Conventional modeling projections are deterministic, relying on a set of equations calibrated to historic behavior and assumed to persist into the distant future. Consequently, they can explore only a narrow aperture around business-as-usual futures. PoleStar widens the lens by including discontinuous developments and revised notions of human well-being. PoleStar invites the user to imagine alternative social visions and explore paths that lead there.